Waste sector emissions must nearly halve by the mid-2030s under government plans, but the CCC’s 2026 progress report finds key delivery indicators stalled and policy ambition falling short of its own recommended pathway.
The UK’s household recycling rate has been rated “off track” by the Climate Change Committee in its 2026 progress report to Parliament, with the rate stuck between 44 and 46 per cent for over a decade and the government’s Carbon Budget and Growth Delivery Plan (CBGDP) containing no target to improve it.
Waste sector emissions stood at 28.9 MtCO2e in 2024 and must fall to an annual average of 16.5 MtCO2e by the Sixth Carbon Budget period (2033-2037) - a reduction of 1.1 MtCO2e per year. The CCC’s own Balanced Pathway assumes the household recycling rate reaches 57 per cent by 2035, but the statutory advisory body says the CBGDP is “less ambitious” than that pathway on both waste reduction and eliminating biodegradable waste from landfill.
Biodegradable waste sent to landfill remains the largest source of emissions in the waste sector. Volumes going to landfill have fallen in recent years, but the CCC attributes this largely to waste being diverted into energy from waste (EfW) rather than to reductions in waste arisings or improvements in recycling. Emissions reductions from landfill have been “partially offset by increasing EfW emissions,” the report notes.
However the CCC says it now has “greater confidence in the delivery of Government’s plans” for waste compared with its 2025 assessment. This follows Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) for packaging being implemented across all UK nations, and Simpler Recycling - requiring all English councils to collect consistent materials for recycling including separate food waste - coming into force in March. The Deposit Return Schemes, the third major collection reform, are also currently scheduled to come online next year.
The CCC is also notably optimistic about progress on carbon capture at EfW sites. Encyclis has signed final contracts for its Protos Energy Recovery Facility to connect to the HyNet CO2 transport and storage network in 2029, with the potential to capture 0.37 MtCO2 per year - around five per cent of current EfW emissions. Two further EfW sites are on the HyNet “standby” list, but the CCC says several more will need to connect to CCS to deliver the CBGDP pathway.
New EfW plants must now demonstrate decarbonisation readiness - including space and technical requirements for CCS - to obtain an environmental permit. However, the CCC warns that locational feasibility will be self-certified by operators, which “could lead to inappropriately located new sites” without guidance from the forthcoming Strategic Spatial Energy Plan.
The government also plans to include EfW in the UK Emissions Trading Scheme from 2028, which would require operators to purchase allowances for the fossil-derived portion of their emissions. Full details of how EfW will be incorporated have not yet been confirmed.
On landfill gas capture, the CCC flags a gap in the government’s delivery plans as subsidies for landfill gas capture via the Renewables Obligation scheme end in 2027 and no new incentives have been announced, leaving “no delivery mechanism” for the government’s ambition to increase landfill gas capture rates during the Sixth Carbon Budget period.
The UK-wide figure obscures significant divergence between the four nations. Primarily, England’s recycling rate - 43.8 per cent in 2024, down from 44 per cent the year before - has flatlined since 2015 and dominates the UK average by population weight. This is at odds with performance in Wales, which reached 68.4 per cent in 2024-25, with 12 of its 22 councils meeting a statutory 70 per cent target. While, Northern Ireland stands at 50.4 per cent.
The devolved administrations have moved further on legislation and targets. Scotland passed the Circular Economy (Scotland) Act in 2024, giving ministers powers to set statutory local recycling targets for the first time - following the Welsh model. England had no statutory targets for individual councils until Simpler Recycling came into force in March 2026, and even that legislation sets collection requirements rather than a recycling rate floor.
The waste sector is one of 12 sectors assessed in the report, which was laid before Parliament on 24 June 2026 under Section 36 of the Climate Change Act 2008. Across all sectors, the CCC concludes that the government “is not moving fast enough to reduce greenhouse gas emissions” and that the CBGDP pathway falls short of meeting the UK’s 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement.
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How will the government and DMOs address the challenges of including glass in DRS while ensuring a level playing field across the UK?
There's no easy solution to include glass in the DRS while maintaining a level playing field. Potential approaches include a phased introduction of glass, potentially with higher deposits to reflect its logistical challenges. The government and DMOs could incentivise innovation in glass packaging design and subsidise dedicated return points for glass-handling. Exemptions for smaller businesses unable to handle glass might also be necessary. Any successful solution will likely blend several approaches. It must address the differing priorities of devolved administrations, balance environmental benefits with logistical and cost implications, and be supported by robust consumer education campaigns emphasizing the importance of glass recycling.